Triggered by gas price hikes, the demonstrations in several Kazakh cities have acquired massive political traction as a matter of less than one day. Nazarbaev’s ousting is much more than a constitutional formality. It may be the end of an era and certainly of a short-lived experiment in transition.
While China will be happy with the consolidation of Tokaev’s power, the ruling elites in post-Soviet countries who are flirting with the „Kazakh Model“ of dual rule for the transition period, have an additional reason for headaches.
Semi-official sources in Russia have immediately spotted the usual suspects („foreign agents“). However, the involvement of U.S. companies in the Kazakh energy sector is too strong to produce similar statements from Kazakh officials. For Tokaev, the restition of order and internal peace is the top priority.
According to still unconfirmed information, Nazarbaev will leave Kazakhstan „to undergo therapy“. The enormous economic power of the Nazarbaev clan and its domination in the media sector make predictions about the outcome of clan conflicts a risky and premature venture.
An additional important unknown is the quality of the protest movement. Demands for constitutional reforms have been voiced, but their success hinges, among other things, on organization and leadership.