Analysis and Strategic Intelligence
Analysis is one of ICEUR´s key activities. It has the objective to cater to the needs of decision makers in domestic and international affairs as well as to provide the basis for own mediation and conflict resolution tasks mandated by relevant actors. Our analytical work is based on inside information delivered by on-site correspondents and partners and is customized to individual orders.
The following listing contains the main areas and themes covered by our analytical team
Russia
The Putin system: elites, economics, wars
Special features of Russian parliamentarism under Putin III (2012-2018)
Russian elites (Response to perceived external threats and operations of the Russian Army)
Russian World / Russkiy Mir” – a consolidation tool or political hoax?
Orthodoxy as basis for Putin´s new conservatism (expert opinions)
Russian regions cope with the crisis: regional elites, economies, protest potential
Russian society and the Syrian intervention (recent surveys)
Ukraine
Post-Maidan Ukraine (Reforms, Institutions, Civil society, Media)
New roles for old oligarchs (in-depth analysis of lobbying groups in Ukraine)
Corruption in Ukraine: Obstacles, money trails, reasons for the failure of anti-corruption programs
Obstacles to Ukrainian reforms, role of Western strategies
Ukrainian Constitutional and legal reforms
Current status of Donbas (political forces, economic situation, Role of Russia)
The plight of the Crimean Tatars
Moldavia
Political crisis in Moldova: consequences for Europe (realignment of political forces,)
Political protest in Moldova, forecast for 2015/2016
Moldova: Corruption and Western donors
The Russian factor in domestic Moldavian politics
New perspectives on the Transnistrian conflict after the Ukrainian war
Moldova: The role of media and journalists in the formation of new political strategies
Belarus
Belarus: Interest groups in politics and business
Belarus: Civil society and the role of the media against the backdrop of European policy changes
Georgia
European Georgia-a pipe dream?
Georgia: Realignment of political elites, redistribution of interest spheres
Foreign and international politics
Russia: domestic and foreign politics, security, economy
Ukraine: Donbas, domestic politics
Belarus: Domestic and foreign politics, economy, security
The Islamic factor as component of Russian strategy
Moldova: Domestic and foreign politics, security
Moldova: Domestic and foreign politics, security
Southern Caucasus: Domestic politics, conflicts
Central Asia (esp. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan): domestic politics
Political Islam (Caucasus, Central Asia, Tatarstan, Bashkortostan)
Core Target Areas
Barring short-term flashpoints, we concentrate on the following regions and themes
Focus on Syria
In response to the rapidly unfolding developments in and around Syria wehave established a working group on Syria consisting of area specialistswith the necessary linguistic and analytical skills. Major topics covered include:
Ethno-political and religious alignments in Syria and the adjacent regions
Relevant migration flows
Russia, Turkey and Iran in the Syrian crisis
Reactions of Russian Islam to the intervention in Syria